Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov — Estoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
Andrey Rublev
RUS1
Andrey Rublev
#18ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 3rd on
Timofey Skatov
KAZLL
Timofey Skatov
#149ATP
1544ELO
1531Clay ELO
$110kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWLW
Rublev A.
6-1 6-1
Skatov T.
Rublev A.
662
Skatov T.
110

Andrey Rublev defeated Timofey Skatov 6-1, 6-1 in the Round of 16 at the Estoril tournament. Rublev converted 60% of his break points and won 75% of his first-serve points, compared to Skatov's 50% and 36%, respectively. Rublev secured six service breaks to Skatov's one.

Around the match

  • Rublev is in strong form after winning his first title of the season at Bastad, quickly recovering from a first-round Wimbledon exit.

    Rublev A.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Rublev A.Skatov T.
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.3
3.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rublev A.Skatov T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
18
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
77
Break points won·Dominant
65
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
5
Tiebreaks·Even
86
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Rublev A.81%
Skatov T.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rublev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rublev A.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Skatov T.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.3+341 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Clay Elo 1531
9.5Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1544
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.38 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rublev A.Skatov T.
Freshness·Clear edge
86
100

Rublev A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Skatov T.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw