Mary Stoiana vs Julieta ParejaW100 Evansville Round of 16

W100 Evansville · ITF · Round of 16
#130WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
hard
#290WTA
1506ELO
1452Hard ELO
17 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWW
Stoiana M.
6-3 6-4
Pareja J.
Stoiana M.
662
Pareja J.
340

Mary Stoiana defeated Julieta Pareja 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the W100 Evansville hard-court tournament. Stoiana hit one ace and five double faults, while winning 65% of her first serves and converting 50% of her break points. Pareja had no aces and one double fault, winning 49% of her first serves and converting all two of her break points.

Key context

  • Match story: Mary Stoiana closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
65%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Stoiana M.56%
Pareja J.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+115 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1452
6.9Overall Elo 1656
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1506
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Stoiana M.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw