Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo BuenoEstoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
#79ATP
1735ELO
1706Clay ELO
$531kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 2nd on
#178ATP
1491ELO
1469Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$352kCAREER
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWL
Faria J.
6-2 6-4
Bueno G.
Faria J.
662
Bueno G.
240

Jaime Faria advanced to the quarterfinals at Estoril, defeating Gonzalo Bueno 6-2, 6-4 in the Round of 16. Faria hit 5 aces and committed 4 double faults, winning 84% of his first-serve points and converting 67% of his break points. He won 4 service breaks to Bueno's 1.

Around the match

  • Bueno achieved a breakthrough by winning his first ATP main draw match with a remarkable comeback from 1-5 down in the third set.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
44%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (49 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
54
45
Break points saved·Dominant
76
29
Break points won·Clear edge
22
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
76
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Faria J.78%
Bueno G.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Faria J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+237 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Clay Elo 1469
8.1Overall Elo 1735
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1491
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.75 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
57
80

Faria J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Bueno G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw