Alexander Bublik vs Alex Molcan — Kitzbuhel Quarter-final

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Quarter-final
Alexander Bublik
KAZ1
Alexander Bublik
#13ATP
1889ELO
1822Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
Alex Molcan
SVK
Alex Molcan
#75ATP
1742ELO
1712Clay ELO
$303kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Bublik A.
6-3 6-2
Molcan A.
Bublik A.
662
Molcan A.
320

Alexander Bublik advanced to the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Alex Molcan. Bublik hit 13 aces and converted 50% of his break points, compared to Molcan's one ace and 12% break point conversion rate. Bublik won 77% of his first-serve points and took four service breaks to Molcan's one.

Around the match

  • “The most important shot in tennis is the serve, so everyone who is watching can take really good advice from this game. You can serve five double faults, you can still win the match.”

    Bublik A.Tennis Now ↗

  • “I think he's a great player. This year he won his first ATP title on clay. I've played him already a couple of times. This is going to be a very challenging match but I'll just try to get ready, hope to be feeling well, and I'm just going to serve well.”

    Bublik A.Tennis Now ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13MunichR32clayAlex Molcan6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.Molcan A.
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.7
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.Molcan A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
72
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
88
Break points won·Clear edge
54
42
Deciding sets·Even
97
95
Tiebreaks·Even
91
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Bublik A.62%
Molcan A.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bublik A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bublik A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Molcan A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+111 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1712
6.8Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1742
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.24 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.Molcan A.
Freshness·
—
100

Molcan A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw