Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian BaezKitzbuhel Quarter-final

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Quarter-final
#55ATP
1781ELO
1741Clay ELO
$608kYTD
$4.5MCAREER
34 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Hanfmann Y.
6-3 6-1
Baez S.
Hanfmann Y.
662
Baez S.
310

Yannick Hanfmann defeated Sebastian Baez in the quarterfinals of the Kitzbuhel tournament, winning 6-3, 6-1 on clay. Hanfmann hit 7 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Baez converted none of his three break point chances. Hanfmann converted 50% of his break points and won four service breaks to Baez's zero.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21KitzbuhelR16clayYannick Hanfmann5-7 6-3 7-5
2022-02-14Rio de JaneiroQ2claySebastian Baez2-6 7-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.8
1.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
46
73
Break points saved·Even
90
86
Break points won·Dominant
5
77
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
23
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Hanfmann Y.51%
Baez S.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.3+24 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Clay Elo 1718
5.3Overall Elo 1781
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1759
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.89 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
82
78

Hanfmann Y.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw