Belle Thompson vs Natsuho ArakawaW15 Brisbane 2 Round of 16

W15 Brisbane 2 · ITF · Round of 16
#661WTA
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
hard
#901WTA
28 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLLL
Thompson B.
6-3 6-7 3-6
Arakawa N.
Thompson B.
66531
Arakawa N.
37762

Natsuho Arakawa defeated Belle Thompson in the Round of 16 at the W15 Brisbane 2 tournament, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 7-6, 6-3. Arakawa hit 8 aces and committed 3 double faults, while converting 17% of break points and winning 67% of first-serve points. She won 3 service breaks to Thompson's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
40%
Service points won·Even
53%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
52%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.8
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Thompson B.70%
Arakawa N.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Thompson B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.03 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.12 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
18°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw