M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento vs Lorenzo AngeliniM25 Denia Round of 16

M25 Denia · ITF · Round of 16
ESP
M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento
#1566ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
#569ATP
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLWWLW
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
3-6 4-6
Angelini L.
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
340
Angelini L.
662

Lorenzo Angelini defeated M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the M25 Denia tournament. Angelini converted 88% of his break points and won 56% of his first-serve points, compared to Alvarez Sarmiento's 44% and 30%, respectively. Angelini secured 7 service breaks to Alvarez Sarmiento's 4.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Alvarez Sarmiento M.Angelini L.
1st serve in·Even
70%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.3
0.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Alvarez Sarmiento M.49%
Angelini L.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alvarez Sarmiento M.Angelini L.
Freshness·
100

Angelini L.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw