Mary Stoiana vs Anna Sinclair RogersW100 Evansville Round of 32

W100 Evansville · ITF · Round of 32
#130WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
#313WTA
1283ELO
1270Hard ELO
28 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWLW
Stoiana M.
6-1 6-1
Sinclair Rogers A.
Stoiana M.
662
Sinclair Rogers A.
110

Mary Stoiana defeated Anna Sinclair Rogers in the Round of 32 at the W100 Evansville tournament, winning 6-1, 6-1 on hard courts. Stoiana hit 4 aces and committed 1 double fault, while converting 38% of break points and winning 76% of first-serve points. Stoiana broke Rogers' serve 5 times, and Rogers did not convert any break points.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-20W50 Chihuahua 3QFhardMary Stoiana7-5 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
56%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
52%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
0.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Stoiana M.77%
Sinclair Rogers A.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Stoiana M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.7+297 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Hard Elo 1270
9.7Overall Elo 1656
ELO gap
0.3Overall Elo 1283
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.33 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
90

Stoiana M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw