Yi Zhou vs Luka PavlovicSegovia Round of 16

Segovia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#244ATP
1456ELO
1445Hard ELO
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA PEDRO MUÑOZ · 1st on
#207ATP
1510ELO
1464Hard ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLLWL
Zhou Y.
4-6 6-7
Pavlovic L.
Zhou Y.
4660
Pavlovic L.
6782

Luka Pavlovic defeated Yi Zhou in the Round of 16 at the Segovia tournament, winning 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Pavlovic hit 15 aces to Zhou's 8 and converted 100% of his break points, securing one service break to Zhou's none. Pavlovic also had a higher first-serve win percentage, at 83% to Zhou's 75%, and committed 6 double faults to Zhou's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
63%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.3
10.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
13
60
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Slight edge
13
24
Deciding sets·Dominant
1
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
14
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Zhou Y.49%
Pavlovic L.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1445
Surface ELO
5.2+19 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1456
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1510
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.48 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Zhou Y.: 19 days rest · Pavlovic L.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 24%

Draw