Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Rice — Winnipeg Round of 16
Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
JPN8#213ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 4th on
Noguchi R.3-6 6-4 6-0
Rice K.
Noguchi R.
3662
Rice K.
6401
Rio Noguchi defeated Keegan Rice in the Round of 16 at the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-4, 6-0 in favor of Noguchi.
Key context
- Match story: Rio Noguchi dropped the opening set before beating Keegan Rice 3–6 6–4 6–0.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
68%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
57%
44%
Aces / match·Even
1.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
1.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTCNoguchi R.54%
Rice K.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form5.35 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set countContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Clear edge
77
100
Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Rice K.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 39%