Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic — Winnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN1
Shintaro Mochizuki
#112ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 6th on
AUS
Philip Sekulic
#307ATP
1390ELO
1363Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWWW
Mochizuki S.
6-3 4-6 6-1
Sekulic P.
Mochizuki S.
6462
Sekulic P.
3611

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Philip Sekulic in the Round of 32 of the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match was won by Mochizuki with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-1.

Key context

  • Match story: Shintaro Mochizuki came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–3 4–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
1st serve in·Clear edge
51%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
Clutch Rating·Even
25
27
Break points saved·Clear edge
60
79
Break points won·Dominant
68
9
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
57
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.59%
Sekulic P.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mochizuki S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mochizuki S.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Sekulic P.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+62 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1363
6.1Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1390
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
Freshness·
93
—

Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw