Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniel Milavsky — Winnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
JPNALT
Hayato Matsuoka
#314ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
USAQ
Daniel Milavsky
#310ATP
1349ELO
1337Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Matsuoka H.
6-2 6-4
Milavsky D.
Matsuoka H.
662
Milavsky D.
240

Hayato Matsuoka defeated Daniel Milavsky in the Round of 32 at the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 6-4 in Matsuoka's favor.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Matsuoka H.Milavsky D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
76%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
8.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Matsuoka H.55%
Milavsky D.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Matsuoka H.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Milavsky D.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1332
Surface ELO
5.1+5 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1361
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1348
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Matsuoka H.Milavsky D.
Freshness·Slight edge
57
63

Matsuoka H.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d) · Milavsky D.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw