Eero Vasa vs Maks KasnikowskiTampere Round of 16

Tampere · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#468ATP
1364ELO
1345Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#234ATP
1400ELO
1418Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLLWW
Vasa E.
3-6 2-6
Kasnikowski M.
Vasa E.
320
Kasnikowski M.
662

Maks Kasnikowski defeated Eero Vasa 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Tampere clay court tournament. Kasnikowski converted 50% of his break points and won 80% of his first-serve points, while Vasa was 0-for on break points and committed four double faults. Kasnikowski secured four service breaks en route to the win.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
56%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.9
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Vasa E.26%
Kasnikowski M.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kasnikowski M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1345
Surface ELO
5.9+73 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1364
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1400
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
100

Vasa E.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kasnikowski M.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw