August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns — Winnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
DEN4
August Holmgren
#226ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 5th on
Garrett Johns
USAQ
Garrett Johns
#390ATP
1336ELO
1323Hard ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWLL
Holmgren A.
6-7 6-2 7-6
Johns G.
Holmgren A.
686772
Johns G.
7102641

August Holmgren defeated Garrett Johns in the Round of 32 of the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match went the full three sets, with Holmgren ultimately prevailing 6-7, 6-2, 7-6.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Holmgren A.Johns G.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.0
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Holmgren A.Johns G.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
43
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
66
Break points won·Even
0
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Holmgren A.79%
Johns G.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Holmgren A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Holmgren A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Johns G.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+193 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1323
7.9Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1336
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.73 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Holmgren A.Johns G.
Freshness·Dominant
100
69

Holmgren A.: 20 days rest · Johns G.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw