Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Keegan SmithSegovia Round of 16

Segovia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#589ATP
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA PEDRO MUÑOZ · 6th on
#198ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWWWW
Gonzalez Fernandez M.
4-6 2-6
Smith K.
Gonzalez Fernandez M.
420
Smith K.
662

Keegan Smith defeated Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 6-4, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Segovia hard-court tournament. Smith served seven aces and did not commit a double fault, while Gonzalez Fernandez had two double faults and did not convert any of his break points. Smith converted 60% of his break points and won three service breaks to advance.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-14M25 Vale do Lobo 1R16hardMario Gonzalez Fernandez6-4 4-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
74%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.8
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Gonzalez Fernandez M.21%
Smith K.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Smith K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.48 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
81

Gonzalez Fernandez M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Smith K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 11%

Draw