Hugo Gaston vs Titouan DroguetEstoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
#97ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 1st on
#111ATP
1717ELO
1681Clay ELO
$295kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Gaston H.
6-0 6-3
Droguet T.
Gaston H.
662
Droguet T.
030

Hugo Gaston advanced to the quarterfinals at Estoril, defeating Titouan Droguet in the Round of 16. Gaston won in straight sets, 6-0, 6-3. He converted 56% of his break points and secured five service breaks, compared to none for Droguet.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-04MetzR32hardHugo Gaston7-6 4-6 6-3
2024-02-05MarseilleQ1hardHugo Gaston7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
Return points won·Even
40%
36%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.6
9.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
64
Break points saved·Even
87
88
Break points won·Clear edge
35
17
Deciding sets·Clear edge
72
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
82
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Gaston H.36%
Droguet T.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Droguet T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1566
Surface ELO
6.4+115 Clay Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1717
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
88

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 27 games (7d) · Droguet T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw