Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina

Hamburg · WTA · Round of 16

ARGQ

Maria Lourdes Carle

#222WTA

1484ELO

1461Clay ELO

26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWWLWWLW

0 — 2

Sets

Wednesday, 22 July 2026 · 10:10

clay

M1 · 1st on

UKR2

Anhelina Kalinina

#51WTA

1827ELO

1806Clay ELO

29 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLLWLLLWL

Lourdes Carle M.

1-6 3-6

Kalinina A.

Lourdes Carle M.

130

Kalinina A.

662

Anhelina Kalinina defeated Maria Lourdes Carle 6-1, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Hamburg clay court tournament. Kalinina converted 60% of her break points and secured six service breaks to Carle's two. Kalinina also had a higher first-serve win percentage, at 64%, compared to Carle's 47%.

Key context

Match story: Anhelina Kalinina dropped just 4 games past Maria Lourdes Carle.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Lourdes Carle M.serving45% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Kalinina A.

Kalinina A.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Lourdes Carle M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Lourdes Carle M.Kalinina A.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Lourdes Carle M.Kalinina A.

1st serve in·Even

66%

69%

1st serve points won·Even

58%

62%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

42%

48%

Service points won·Even

53%

57%

Return points won·Even

49%

Break points saved·Slight edge

52%

60%

Aces / match·Even

1.1

1.4

Double faults / match·Dominant

5.2

2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 51). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Lourdes Carle M.Kalinina A.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Lourdes Carle M.10%

Kalinina A.90%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kalinina A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Lourdes Carle M.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Kalinina A.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

0.7Clay Elo 1461

Surface ELO

9.3+344 Clay Elo edge

0.7Overall Elo 1484

ELO gap

9.3Overall Elo 1827

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.47 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.37 of last 10 on clay

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Lourdes Carle M.Kalinina A.

Freshness·

—

Kalinina A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather

15°CRain

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 86%

Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina — Hamburg Round of 16

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay