Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres BurruchagaEstoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
#47ATP
1769ELO
1726Clay ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 2nd on
#61ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLL
Borges N.
1-6 6-4 3-6
Burruchaga R.
Borges N.
1631
Burruchaga R.
6462

Roman Andres Burruchaga defeated Nuno Borges in the Round of 16 at Estoril, advancing with a 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 victory. Burruchaga hit 4 aces and 1 double fault, while Borges had 2 aces and 4 double faults. Burruchaga converted 45% of break points and won 71% of first-serve points, securing 5 service breaks to Borges' 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
43%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
67
Break points saved·Dominant
93
68
Break points won·Dominant
23
73
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
48
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Borges N.53%
Burruchaga R.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Clay Elo 1694
5.7Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
90

Borges N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw