Sebastian Baez vs Arthur RinderknechKitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 16
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
GRANDSTAND · 1st on
#28ATP
1780ELO
1713Clay ELO
$855kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWL
Baez S.
7-6 2-6 6-4
Rinderknech A.
Baez S.
78262
Rinderknech A.
66641

Sebastian Baez defeated Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 16 at Kitzbuhel, advancing with a 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 victory. Baez hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, while converting 33% of break points and securing 2 service breaks. Rinderknech had 20 aces and 6 double faults, converting 75% of break points and securing 3 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Sebastian Baez closed it out in three sets, 7–6 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
32%
Break points saved·Even
65%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
12.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
45
Break points saved·Clear edge
86
98
Break points won·Dominant
77
2
Deciding sets·Even
90
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
53
24

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:52 UTC
Baez S.50%
Rinderknech A.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+5 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1712
4.7Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1780
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.69 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
73

Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Rinderknech A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw