Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula BadosaHamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · WTA · Round of 32
#133WTA
1664ELO
1662Clay ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#84WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWW
Kawa K.
5-7 4-6
Badosa P.
Kawa K.
540
Badosa P.
762

Paula Badosa defeated Katarzyna Kawa in the Round of 32 at the Hamburg clay court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 6-4 in favor of Badosa. Badosa converted 50% of her break points and secured three service breaks to Kawa's one.

Around the match

  • Badosa made a successful Hamburg debut just two days after retiring from illness at the Iasi final.

    Badosa P.hamburg-open.com· 2026-07-22
  • Badosa shows strong returning form after injury setbacks; ranked back in top 100 and aiming to reclaim her place among tennis's elite.

    Badosa P.hamburg-open.com· 2026-07-22

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
41%
Service points won·Even
54%
56%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.6
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
91
Break points saved·Dominant
15
84
Break points won·Even
93
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
93
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kawa K.27%
Badosa P.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Badosa P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1662
Surface ELO
5.3+22 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1780
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.59 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Kawa K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw