Akira Santillan vs Mert AlkayaSegovia Round of 16

Segovia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#290ATP
1367ELO
1343Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA PEDRO MUÑOZ · 2nd on
#298ATP
1358ELO
1337Hard ELO
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWLL
Santillan A.
2-6 2-6
Alkaya M.
Santillan A.
220
Alkaya M.
662

Mert Alkaya defeated Akira Santillan 6-2, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Segovia hard-court tournament. Alkaya converted 80% of his break points and won 76% of his first-serve points, while Santillan converted 100% of his break points but was limited to only one service break. Alkaya also had more aces and fewer double faults than Santillan in the match.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
71%
Aces / match·Even
5.1
4.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.4
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Santillan A.51%
Alkaya M.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+6 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1337
5.1Overall Elo 1367
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1358
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
99
84

Santillan A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Alkaya M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 19%

Draw