Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz AcostaKitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 16
#13ATP
1889ELO
1822Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLLWW
Bublik A.
6-3 7-5
Diaz Acosta F.
Bublik A.
672
Diaz Acosta F.
350

Alexander Bublik advanced to the quarterfinals at Kitzbuhel, defeating Facundo Diaz Acosta in the Round of 16. Bublik won in straight sets, 6-3, 7-5. He hit 8 aces to Diaz Acosta's 1 and converted 2 of 7 break points, while Diaz Acosta did not convert any of his break point chances.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.8
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
81
5
Break points saved·Dominant
98
72
Break points won·Dominant
54
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
25

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Bublik A.66%
Diaz Acosta F.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bublik A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+154 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Clay Elo 1668
7.6Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1680
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.48 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Diaz Acosta F.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw