Fajing Sun vs Mees RottgeringWinnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#324ATP
1496ELO
1473Hard ELO
$32kYTD
$490kCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 3rd on
#418ATP
1468ELO
1449Hard ELO
19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLLW
Sun F.
4-6 4-6
Rottgering M.
Sun F.
440
Rottgering M.
662

Mees Rottgering defeated Fajing Sun in the Round of 32 of the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match ended with a straight-sets victory for Rottgering, 6-4, 6-4.

Key context

  • Match story: Mees Rottgering edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
57%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.5
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Sun F.62%
Rottgering M.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sun F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+24 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1449
5.4Overall Elo 1496
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1468
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.33 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
77
82

Sun F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d) · Rottgering M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw