Rio Noguchi vs Braden ShickWinnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#213ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 2nd on
#219ATP
1385ELO
1358Hard ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWLWW
Noguchi R.
5-7 6-3 6-2
Shick B.
Noguchi R.
5662
Shick B.
7321

Rio Noguchi defeated Braden Shick in the Round of 32 at the Winnipeg hard court tournament. The match went the full three sets, with Noguchi taking the first set 5-7, before rebounding to win 6-3, 6-2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
68%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.0
3.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Noguchi R.74%
Shick B.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noguchi R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+154 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1358
6.8Overall Elo 1532
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.09 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
100

Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Shick B.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw