Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jule NiemeierHamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · WTA · Round of 32
#222WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
M1 · 3rd on
#405WTA
1418ELO
1398Clay ELO
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWL
Lourdes Carle M.
7-5 6-2
Niemeier J.
Lourdes Carle M.
762
Niemeier J.
520

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Jule Niemeier in the Round of 32 at the Hamburg clay court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Carle. Carle converted 46% of her break points and won 6 service breaks to Niemeier's 4, also committing fewer double faults, 7 to 11.

Around the match

  • I think it's simply a very nice court and it doesn't feel too big. It suits my game very well, has a good bounce, is relatively fast for a clay court, but not too fast.

    Niemeier J.hamburg-open.com· 2026-07-21

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
66%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
38%
Service points won·Even
52%
51%
Return points won·Even
48%
47%
Break points saved·Even
51%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.1
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
10.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
27
19
Break points saved·Slight edge
26
21
Break points won·Clear edge
97
77
Deciding sets·Dominant
56
12
Tiebreaks·
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Lourdes Carle M.59%
Niemeier J.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lourdes Carle M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8+63 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1398
5.8Overall Elo 1484
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1418
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.94 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw