Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Estoril Round of 32

Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
LTUALT
Vilius Gaubas
#123ATP
1581ELO
1535Clay ELO
$279kYTD
$763kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 1st on
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP8
Pablo Carreno Busta
#72ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLWLW
Gaubas V.
1-6 3-6
Carreno Busta P.
Gaubas V.
130
Carreno Busta P.
662

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Vilius Gaubas in the Round of 32 at the Estoril tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-1, 6-3 in favor of Carreno Busta.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gaubas V.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
66%
53%
Aces / match·Even
3.3
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaubas V.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
46
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Slight edge
52
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
86
14
Tiebreaks·Dominant
8
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Gaubas V.27%
Carreno Busta P.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Carreno Busta P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaubas V.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Clay Elo 1535
Surface ELO
7.9+232 Clay Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1581
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
2.53 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gaubas V.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
85

Gaubas V.: 15 days rest · Carreno Busta P.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw