Stan Wawrinka vs Roman Andres BurruchagaEstoril Round of 32

Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
#125ATP
1678ELO
1613Clay ELO
$657kYTD
$38MCAREER
41 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLWLL
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 3rd on
#61ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLL
Wawrinka S.
4-6 6-4 3-6
Burruchaga R.
Wawrinka S.
4631
Burruchaga R.
6462

Roman Andres Burruchaga defeated Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 32 at the Estoril tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Burruchaga converted 40% of his break points and secured 6 service breaks, while Wawrinka converted 42% of his break points and secured 5 service breaks. Burruchaga served 3 aces and 4 double faults, compared to Wawrinka's 4 aces and 3 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
32%
43%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.5
2.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
53
67
Break points saved·Dominant
97
68
Break points won·Dominant
17
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
62
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Wawrinka S.32%
Burruchaga R.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Burruchaga R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Clay Elo 1612
Surface ELO
6.0+82 Clay Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1678
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.12 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
90

Wawrinka S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw