Sebastian Baez vs Miomir KecmanovicKitzbuhel Round of 32

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 32
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#66ATP
1768ELO
1733Clay ELO
$777kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLLWW
Baez S.
6-3 3-6 6-4
Kecmanovic M.
Baez S.
6362
Kecmanovic M.
3641

Sebastian Baez defeated Miomir Kecmanovic in the Round of 32 at Kitzbuhel. Baez won 6-3, 3-6, 6-4. Baez had 5 aces and 2 double faults, while Kecmanovic had 6 aces and 2 double faults; Baez converted 23% of break points and Kecmanovic converted 40%, but Baez secured 3 service breaks to Kecmanovic's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Sebastian Baez closed it out in three sets, 6–3 3–6 6–4.

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayMiomir Kecmanovic6-7 6-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2024-10-28Paris MastersR64hardMiomir Kecmanovic6-4 6-7 7-5
2024-06-24EastbourneR16grassMiomir Kecmanovic6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Even
65%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.8
5.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
28
Break points saved·Slight edge
86
94
Break points won·Dominant
77
37
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
11
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
53
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Baez S.45%
Kecmanovic M.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
5.2+15 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1768
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
8.59 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.28 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
78
80

Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Kecmanovic M.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw