Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Kyrian Jacquet — Estoril Round of 32

Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#40ATP
1744ELO
1700Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT CASCAIS · 2nd on
Kyrian Jacquet
FRALL
Kyrian Jacquet
#119ATP
1685ELO
1586Clay ELO
$269kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWLL
Merida Aguilar D.
6-1 1-6 5-7
Jacquet K.
Merida Aguilar D.
6151
Jacquet K.
1672

Kyrian Jacquet defeated Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Round of 32 at the Estoril tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 6-1, 7-5 in Jacquet's favor. Jacquet advanced with the win.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-03-16M25 Palmanova 1R16clayKyrian Jacquet6-3 7-5

Statistics

This season
Merida Aguilar D.Jacquet K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
57%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Merida Aguilar D.Jacquet K.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
47
Break points saved·Clear edge
64
87
Break points won·Clear edge
46
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
49
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.65%
Jacquet K.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Merida Aguilar D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Jacquet K.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1586
5.7Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1685
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
9.19 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on clay
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Merida Aguilar D.Jacquet K.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
85

Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Jacquet K.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw