Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes CarleHamburg Qualifying Final

Hamburg · WTA · Qualifying Final
#329WTA
1327ELO
1325Clay ELO
29 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLLLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
M2 · 1st on
#222WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLW
Pieri J.
6-0 1-6 1-6
Lourdes Carle M.
Pieri J.
6111
Lourdes Carle M.
0662

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Jessica Pieri in the final of the Hamburg clay court tournament, coming back from a set down to win 0-6, 6-1, 6-1. Carle served two aces to Pieri's zero and converted 50% of her break points, compared to Pieri's 44%. Carle won six service breaks to Pieri's four.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
52%
58%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Service points won·Even
50%
52%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.3
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Pieri J.23%
Lourdes Carle M.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lourdes Carle M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1325
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1327
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1484
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
3.03 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
16°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw