Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliEstoril Round of 32

Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
#111ATP
1717ELO
1681Clay ELO
$295kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 2nd on
#76ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLLWL
Droguet T.
6-0 3-6 6-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Droguet T.
6362
Ugo Carabelli C.
0641

Titouan Droguet advanced to the next round at Estoril, defeating Camilo Ugo Carabelli in a three-set match. The final score was 6-0, 3-6, 6-4. Droguet converted 86% of his break points and won six service breaks to Ugo Carabelli's four.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.9
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
64
50
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
81
Break points won·Clear edge
17
41
Deciding sets·Even
93
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
3

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Droguet T.48%
Ugo Carabelli C.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Clay Elo 1681
Surface ELO
5.7+60 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1717
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
82

Droguet T.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw