Varvara Lepchenko vs Elina AvanesyanHamburg Qualifying Final

Hamburg · WTA · Qualifying Final
#184WTA
1578ELO
1533Clay ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
M1 · 1st on
#161WTA
1694ELO
1666Clay ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW
Lepchenko V.
6-4 6-7 3-6
Avanesyan E.
Lepchenko V.
66531
Avanesyan E.
47762

Elina Avanesyan won the final of the Hamburg clay tournament, defeating Varvara Lepchenko 4-6, 7-6, 6-3. Avanesyan hit 0 aces and 3 double faults, while Lepchenko had 4 aces and 2 double faults. Avanesyan converted 43% of break points and won 6 service breaks to Lepchenko's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
57%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
41%
Service points won·Even
55%
52%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
51%
Break points saved·Even
54%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
0.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
15
56
Break points saved·Slight edge
17
8
Break points won·Dominant
56
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
13
92
Tiebreaks·
55

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Lepchenko V.28%
Avanesyan E.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Avanesyan E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1532
Surface ELO
6.7+134 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1578
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1694
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Lepchenko V.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
16°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw