Mark Lajal vs Bu YunchaoketeLincoln Semi-final

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
hard
#120ATP
1709ELO
1644Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLL
Lajal M.
2-6 6-1 7-6
Yunchaokete B.
Lajal M.
26782
Yunchaokete B.
61661

Mark Lajal advanced to the finals of the Lincoln tournament, defeating Bu Yunchaokete in the semifinals. Lajal won the match 2-6, 6-1, 7-6 on hard courts.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-12-04M25 Monastir 11FhardMark Lajal6-4 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
58%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
34%
Break points saved·Even
70%
72%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.4
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
3
Break points saved·Even
89
92
Break points won·Slight edge
13
8
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
0
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Lajal M.28%
Yunchaokete B.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1556
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1709
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
75
80

Lajal M.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw