Andrey Rublev vs Luciano DarderiBastad Final

Bastad · ATP · Final
#18ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
#20ATP
1835ELO
1836Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
Rublev A.
6-4 6-3
Darderi L.
Rublev A.
662
Darderi L.
430

Andrey Rublev won the Bastad final, defeating Luciano Darderi 6-4, 6-3 on clay. Rublev hit 4 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Darderi had 3 of each. Rublev converted 50% of his break points and broke Darderi's serve twice to secure the win.

Key context

  • Match story: Andrey Rublev closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18HamburgQFclayAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.3
6.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
83
67
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
89
Break points won·Dominant
65
22
Deciding sets·Even
96
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Rublev A.56%
Darderi L.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+37 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Clay Elo 1836
5.8Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1834
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
79

Rublev A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Darderi L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw