Kyrian Jacquet vs Taro Daniel — Estoril Qualifying Final

Estoril · ATP · Qualifying Final
Kyrian Jacquet
FRA2
Kyrian Jacquet
#119ATP
1685ELO
1586Clay ELO
$269kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT CASCAIS · 1st on
Taro Daniel
JPN
Taro Daniel
#186ATP
1567ELO
1542Clay ELO
$64kYTD
$5.1MCAREER
33 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWLWW
Jacquet K.
4-6 6-3 3-6
Daniel T.
Jacquet K.
4631
Daniel T.
6362

Taro Daniel won the Estoril final, defeating Kyrian Jacquet 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Daniel hit 2 aces and 5 double faults, while winning 70% of his first serves and converting 80% of his break points. He secured 4 service breaks to Jacquet's 3.

Key context

  • Match story: Taro Daniel closed it out in three sets, 6–4 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQ1clayKyrian Jacquet6-1 6-4
2025-05-19Roland GarrosQ128clayKyrian Jacquet6-1 6-4

Statistics

This season
Jacquet K.Daniel T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jacquet K.Daniel T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
47
20
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
77
Break points won·Slight edge
27
34
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
8
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Jacquet K.70%
Daniel T.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jacquet K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jacquet K.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Daniel T.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+44 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1542
6.5Overall Elo 1685
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1567
8.4Leads 4–0 on clay
H2H
1.6Trails 0–4 on clay
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jacquet K.Daniel T.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
65

Jacquet K.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Daniel T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw