Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno — Estoril Qualifying Final

Estoril · ATP · Qualifying Final
Andrea Pellegrino
ITA3
Andrea Pellegrino
#135ATP
1674ELO
1654Clay ELO
$320kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 1st on
PER7
Gonzalo Bueno
#178ATP
1491ELO
1469Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$352kCAREER
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWL
Pellegrino A.
3-6 7-5 4-6
Bueno G.
Pellegrino A.
3741
Bueno G.
6562

Gonzalo Bueno won the Estoril final, defeating Andrea Pellegrino 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. Bueno served four aces to Pellegrino's zero and converted 26% of his break points, while Pellegrino converted 50%. Bueno won the match despite being broken one more time than Pellegrino, 5-6.

Key context

  • Match story: Gonzalo Bueno closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Pellegrino A.Bueno G.
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
1.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pellegrino A.Bueno G.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
45
Break points saved·Dominant
67
29
Break points won·Slight edge
35
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
82
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
73
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Pellegrino A.73%
Bueno G.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pellegrino A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pellegrino A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Bueno G.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.3+184 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1469
7.3Overall Elo 1674
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1491
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.43 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pellegrino A.Bueno G.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
75

Pellegrino A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Bueno G.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw