Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo — Bastad Semi-final

Bastad · ATP · Semi-final
Andrey Rublev
RUS1
Andrey Rublev
#18ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI3
Alejandro Tabilo
#29ATP
1819ELO
1781Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
Rublev A.
6-4 4-6 6-4
Tabilo A.
Rublev A.
6462
Tabilo A.
4641

Andrey Rublev defeated Alejandro Tabilo 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in the Bastad semifinals. Rublev hit 12 aces to Tabilo's 8 and won 3 service breaks to Tabilo's 2. Rublev converted 23% of break points, while Tabilo converted 67%.

Key context

  • Match story: Andrey Rublev edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-18Miami MastersR64hardAlejandro Tabilo6-7 6-2 6-4
2024-10-21BaselR16hardAndrey Rublev7-6 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Rublev A.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.0
6.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rublev A.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Dominant
65
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Rublev A.59%
Tabilo A.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rublev A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rublev A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tabilo A.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+91 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1781
6.0Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1819
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rublev A.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
80

Rublev A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw