Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel CerundoloGstaad Semi-final

Gstaad · ATP · Semi-final
#38ATP
1894ELO
1813Clay ELO
$642kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 1st on
#51ATP
1790ELO
1762Clay ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWL
Collignon R.
1-6 7-6 7-5
Cerundolo J.
Collignon R.
17772
Cerundolo J.
66551

Raphael Collignon defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Gstaad semifinals on clay, 1-6, 7-6, 7-5. The match saw Collignon and Cerundolo hit an equal number of aces, 7 each, while Collignon committed 4 double faults to Cerundolo's 2. Collignon converted 43% of break points, while Cerundolo converted 50%, but Collignon won the match with 3 service breaks to Cerundolo's 4.

Around the match

  • Cerundolo demonstrated outstanding resilience by recovering from first-set losses in multiple matches at Gstaad.

  • Collignon completes remarkable comeback from 1-6 down in first set to reach final, aiming to go one better than last year's finalist.

    Collignon R.tennismajors.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-22EastbourneR32grassJuan Manuel Cerundolo4-6 6-4 6-7

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.2
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
73
77
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
80
Break points won·Clear edge
55
71
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Collignon R.67%
Cerundolo J.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Collignon R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+52 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1762
6.3Overall Elo 1894
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1790
1.8Trails 0–3 on clay
H2H
8.2Leads 3–0 on clay
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
92
65

Collignon R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°CThunderstorm
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw