Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea — Granby Semi-final

Granby · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
USA
Murphy Cassone
#291ATP
1429ELO
1393Hard ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 2nd on
FRA2
Arthur Gea
#85ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWL
Cassone M.
3-6 3-6
Gea A.
Cassone M.
330
Gea A.
662

Arthur Gea advanced to the final of the Granby tournament, defeating Murphy Cassone in the semifinals. Gea won in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3. He converted 80% of his break points, compared to Cassone's 33%, and broke serve four times to Cassone's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Cassone M.Gea A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Even
6.0
6.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Cassone M.Gea A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
31
38
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
81
Break points won·Slight edge
18
27
Deciding sets·Slight edge
15
26
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
67
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Cassone M.15%
Gea A.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gea A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cassone M.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gea A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
7.7+217 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1596
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Cassone M.Gea A.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Cassone M.: 21 days rest · Gea A.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw