Lucia Bronzetti vs Nuria BrancaccioRome Semi-final

Rome · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#116WTA
1622ELO
1605Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
clay
#190WTA
1494ELO
1486Clay ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
Bronzetti L.
6-4 5-7 6-0
Brancaccio N.
Bronzetti L.
6562
Brancaccio N.
4701

Lucia Bronzetti defeated Nuria Brancaccio in the Rome semifinals. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 5-7, 6-0 in favor of Bronzetti. Bronzetti converted 62% of her break points and secured 8 service breaks, compared to Brancaccio's 36% conversion rate and 5 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-07-06W25 TorinoR32clayLucia Bronzetti6-3 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
61%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
43%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Even
47%
46%
Break points saved·Even
53%
53%
Aces / match·Even
1.7
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
18
12
Break points saved·Clear edge
17
30
Break points won·Clear edge
73
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
25
16
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
20
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Bronzetti L.75%
Brancaccio N.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bronzetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+118 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Clay Elo 1486
6.6Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1494
5.2Split 1–1 on clay
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
8.28 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Bronzetti L.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw