Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur — Umag Final

Umag · ATP · Final
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#40ATP
1744ELO
1700Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM · 1st on
Damir Dzumhur
BIH
Damir Dzumhur
#104ATP
1638ELO
1594Clay ELO
$538kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
34 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Merida Aguilar D.
6-2 5-7 6-2
Dzumhur D.
Merida Aguilar D.
6562
Dzumhur D.
2721

Daniel Merida Aguilar won the Umag final, defeating Damir Dzumhur 6-2, 5-7, 6-2. The match was played on clay. Merida Aguilar claimed the title.

Around the match

  • Physical condition is a concern after demanding run to final with little recovery time.

    Dzumhur D.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • “How can you tell me? You are looking in my eyes and lying to me. You know that this ball is out. Can you tell me if this ball is out? If you are an honest person, you are going to answer. Is this ball in or out? Be honest once in your life!”

    Dzumhur D.Yahoo Sports ↗

  • Mérida demonstrated significant mental growth by recovering after losing the second set, showing he learned from his Bucharest final loss to Navone earlier this season.

    Merida Aguilar D.Punto de Break ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Merida Aguilar D.Dzumhur D.
1st serve in·Even
67%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
57%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Merida Aguilar D.Dzumhur D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
65
Break points saved·Slight edge
64
70
Break points won·Dominant
46
75
Deciding sets·Clear edge
87
75
Tiebreaks·Dominant
49
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.76%
Dzumhur D.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Merida Aguilar D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Dzumhur D.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+106 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1594
6.3Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1638
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.09 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Merida Aguilar D.Dzumhur D.
Freshness·Dominant
65
98

Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Dzumhur D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw