Damir Dzumhur vs Alex MolcanUmag Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Semi-final
#104ATP
1638ELO
1594Clay ELO
$538kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
34 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM · 3rd on
#75ATP
1742ELO
1712Clay ELO
$303kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLWL
Dzumhur D.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Molcan A.
Dzumhur D.
3662
Molcan A.
6431

Damir Dzumhur advanced to the Umag semifinals with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win over Alex Molcan. Dzumhur hit 5 aces and 2 double faults, winning 68% of his first serves, while Molcan had 3 aces and 3 double faults, winning 59% of his first serves. Dzumhur converted 31% of break points and broke Molcan's serve 4 times, compared to Molcan's 3 service breaks and 50% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-01-31MontpellierR32hardDamir Dzumhur7-6 6-0
2021-06-28WimbledonQ2grassAlex Molcan6-2 7-6
2021-06-23WimbledonQ64grassAlex Molcan6-2 7-6(2)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
3.5
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
65
72
Break points saved·Clear edge
70
88
Break points won·Dominant
75
42
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
95
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
82
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Dzumhur D.22%
Molcan A.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Molcan A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.5Clay Elo 1594
Surface ELO
6.5+118 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1638
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1742
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
100

Dzumhur D.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Molcan A.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 0 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw