Nuria Brancaccio vs Julia RieraRome Quarter-final

Rome · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#190WTA
1494ELO
1486Clay ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
clay
#152WTA
1563ELO
1533Clay ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
Brancaccio N.
6-3 1-6 7-6
Riera J.
Brancaccio N.
61772
Riera J.
36651

Nuria Brancaccio defeated Julia Riera in the quarterfinals of the Rome tournament on clay, winning 6-3, 1-6, 7-6. Brancaccio served two aces and committed two double faults, while winning 60 percent of her first serves and converting 40 percent of her break points. Riera had one ace, two double faults, 70 percent first-serve wins, and five service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-03-21W25 MosqueraR32clayJulia Riera6-3 6-2
2023-01-15W25 Buenos AiresFclayNuria Brancaccio6-4 4-6 7-5
2022-08-31W25 TriesteR16clayJulia Riera3-6 6-3 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
74%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
47%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 46). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
12
26
Break points saved·Clear edge
30
49
Break points won·Clear edge
95
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
16
39
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
12
27

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Brancaccio N.36%
Riera J.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Riera J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1486
Surface ELO
5.6+46 Clay Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1494
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1563
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.84 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw