August Holmgren vs Justin Boulais — Granby Quarter-final

Granby · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
DEN3
August Holmgren
#226ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 4th on
Justin Boulais
CANALT
Justin Boulais
#398ATP
1352ELO
1326Hard ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLL
Holmgren A.
6-1 6-3
Boulais J.
Holmgren A.
662
Boulais J.
130

August Holmgren defeated Justin Boulais in the quarterfinals of the Granby hard-court tournament, winning 6-1, 6-3. Holmgren hit 5 aces to Boulais' 1 and converted 67% of his break points, compared to Boulais' 0%. Holmgren won 84% of his first-serve points and secured 4 service breaks to Boulais' 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Holmgren A.Boulais J.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Even
67%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.0
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Holmgren A.Boulais J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
5
Break points saved·Dominant
90
50
Break points won·Slight edge
0
5
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Holmgren A.75%
Boulais J.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Holmgren A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Holmgren A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Boulais J.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+190 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1326
7.7Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1352
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Holmgren A.Boulais J.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
83

Holmgren A.: 21 days rest · Boulais J.: played today · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw