Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez — Bastad Quarter-final

Bastad · ATP · Quarter-final
Andrey Rublev
RUS1
Andrey Rublev
#18ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 3rd on
Sebastian Baez
ARG8
Sebastian Baez
#53ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWL
Rublev A.
6-1 6-2
Baez S.
Rublev A.
662
Baez S.
120

Andrey Rublev defeated Sebastian Baez in the Bastad quarterfinals, winning 6-1, 6-2 on clay. Rublev served 5 aces to Baez's 0 and converted 50% of break points, compared to Baez's 0%. Rublev won 78% of first-serve points and broke Baez's serve 4 times.

Around the match

  • Rublev recovered impressively after squandering match points in the previous round, regrouping strongly and unleashing his powerful forehand with renewed conviction on clay.

    Rublev A.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-07-11BastadSFclaySebastian Baez6-2 6-4

Statistics

This season
Rublev A.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
68%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.2
1.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rublev A.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
83
73
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
86
Break points won·Clear edge
65
77
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Rublev A.72%
Baez S.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rublev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rublev A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Baez S.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+155 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Clay Elo 1718
6.8Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1759
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rublev A.Baez S.
Freshness·Even
79
78

Rublev A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw