Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Umag · ATP · Semi-final

ARG

Roman Andres Burruchaga

#61ATP

1711ELO

1694Clay ELO

$458kYTD

$1.3MCAREER

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLWWWWWLL

0 — 2

Sets

Friday, 17 July 2026 · 18:40

clay

GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM · 2nd on

ESP

Daniel Merida Aguilar

#40ATP

1744ELO

1700Clay ELO

21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWWLW

Burruchaga R.

4-6 2-6

Merida Aguilar D.

Burruchaga R.

420

Merida Aguilar D.

662

Daniel Merida Aguilar defeated Roman Andres Burruchaga in the semifinals of the Umag tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-2 in favor of Merida Aguilar.

Key context

Match story: Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped just 6 games past Roman Andres Burruchaga.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Burruchaga R.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Merida Aguilar D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Burruchaga R.Merida Aguilar D.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Burruchaga R.Merida Aguilar D.

1st serve in·Even

63%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

66%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

50%

Service points won·Even

60%

61%

Return points won·Even

43%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

61%

56%

Aces / match·Even

2.4

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.6

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Burruchaga R.Merida Aguilar D.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Burruchaga R.44%

Merida Aguilar D.56%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Burruchaga R.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Merida Aguilar D.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.9Clay Elo 1694

Surface ELO

5.1+6 Clay Elo edge

4.6Overall Elo 1711

ELO gap

5.4Overall Elo 1744

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

5.75 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

8.99 of last 10 on clay

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Burruchaga R.Merida Aguilar D.

Freshness·Clear edge

Burruchaga R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather

30°CClear

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 50%

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Umag Semi-final

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on clay