James Mccabe vs Bernard Tomic — Lincoln Round of 16

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

AUS

James Mccabe

#243ATP

1532ELO

1481Hard ELO

23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLWLLLWL

0 — 2

Sets

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · 11:15

hard

CENTER COURT · 1st on

AUS8

Bernard Tomic

#164ATP

1475ELO

1441Hard ELO

$117kYTD

$6.8MCAREER

33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLWWLWLWW

Mccabe J.

6-7 4-6

Tomic B.

Mccabe J.

6²40

Tomic B.

7⁷62

Bernard Tomic advanced to the quarterfinals of the Lincoln tournament with a win over James McCabe in the Round of 16. Tomic secured the victory with a 7-6, 6-4 score.

Key context

Match story: Bernard Tomic edged James Mccabe in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Mccabe J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Tomic B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Mccabe J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

—

Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

1st serve in·Even

64%

66%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

75%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Even

66%

64%

Return points won·Even

33%

36%

Break points saved·Even

64%

61%

Aces / match·Dominant

8.9

4.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.1

1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Mccabe J.71%

Tomic B.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mccabe J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mccabe J.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Tomic B.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.5+40 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.5Hard Elo 1441

5.7Overall Elo 1532

ELO gap

4.3Overall Elo 1474

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.35 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.05 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

Freshness·Slight edge

100

Mccabe J.: 16 days rest · Tomic B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather

31°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 55%

James Mccabe vs Bernard Tomic — Lincoln Round of 16

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard