Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Umag Quarter-final

Umag · ATP · Quarter-final
Alex Molcan
SVK
Alex Molcan
#75ATP
1742ELO
1712Clay ELO
$303kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · 3rd on
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ESP2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#27ATP
1893ELO
1813Clay ELO
$1.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWL
Molcan A.
3-6 6-1 6-2
Davidovich Fokina A.
Molcan A.
3662
Davidovich Fokina A.
6121

Alex Molcan advanced to the semifinals of the Umag tournament, defeating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 3-6, 6-1, 6-2. Molcan converted 50% of his break points, compared to 25% for Davidovich Fokina, and held a 79% first-serve win percentage. Molcan secured 4 service breaks to Davidovich Fokina's 1.

Around the match

  • Molcan mounted an incredible comeback from a set and break down against Dino Prizmic in the second round to advance.

    Molcan A.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Molcan A.Davidovich Fokina A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
56%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
4.8
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Molcan A.Davidovich Fokina A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
96
Break points won·Dominant
42
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
94
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Molcan A.25%
Davidovich Fokina A.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Molcan A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Davidovich Fokina A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.7Clay Elo 1712
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Clay Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1893
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.08 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Molcan A.Davidovich Fokina A.
Freshness·
100
—

Molcan A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 82%

Draw