Maria Lourdes Carle vs Barbora PalicovaKitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#222WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
#238WTA
1380ELO
1374Clay ELO
22 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Lourdes Carle M.
0-6 6-1 6-3
Palicova B.
Lourdes Carle M.
0662
Palicova B.
6131

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Barbora Palicova in the Round of 16 at Kitzbuhel, coming back from a set down to win 0-6, 6-1, 6-3. The match saw Carle commit 6 double faults and convert 46% of break points, while Palicova had 3 double faults and converted 56% of break points. Carle secured 6 service breaks to Palicova's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
44%
Service points won·Even
52%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
43%
Break points saved·Even
52%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.1
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Lourdes Carle M.79%
Palicova B.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lourdes Carle M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+88 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1374
6.3Overall Elo 1484
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1380
5.7Leads 2–1 on clay
H2H
4.3Trails 1–2 on clay
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw