Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliUmag Quarter-final

Umag · ATP · Quarter-final
#61ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 1st on
#76ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLW
Burruchaga R.
6-2 2-6 6-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Burruchaga R.
6262
Ugo Carabelli C.
2631

Roman Andres Burruchaga defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the Umag tournament. Burruchaga hit 4 aces and 4 double faults, winning 76% of his first serves and converting 80% of his break points. He won 4 service breaks to Carabelli's 3.

Around the match

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroR32clayRoman Andres Burruchaga6-3 6-4
2020-02-29M25 Cordoba 1QFclayCamilo Ugo Carabelli7-6(3) 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
67
50
Break points saved·Clear edge
68
81
Break points won·Dominant
73
41
Deciding sets·Slight edge
84
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
3

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Burruchaga R.46%
Ugo Carabelli C.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1694
Surface ELO
5.6+47 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1759
5.9Leads 3–2 on clay
H2H
4.1Trails 2–3 on clay
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
85
92

Burruchaga R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw